Post Source: DAWN Economic & Business Review – By Ahmad Fraz Khan
Monday, 19 Oct, 2009
AGRICULTURE this Kharif has suffered the first serious blow of an international weather phenomenon called “El Nino,” which, according to initial estimates, has cost farmers and the country over Rs10 billion.
All Kharif crops – cotton, rice, sugarcane and maize – have suffered varying degrees of yield losses due to erratic weather, and these losses are now official: production estimates of cotton, rice and sugarcane have been revised downwards.
The government expected 14.3 million cotton bales, but revised it to 13.3 million bales … some farmers fear even less. The cane estimate has come down to 48 million tons from the target of 56.8 million tons. Even the reduced rice target of 5.9 million tons now looks doubtful; the production last year was seven million tons.
The cumulative market value of the crops, if original targets were met, stood at Rs800 billion. With the El Nino costing seven to eight per cent of production losses, the farmers fear Rs100 billion hole in their income this year.
Though weather variations are affecting agriculture in the developed world as well, its impact on countries such as Pakistan could be disastrous because agriculture in underdeveloped states is purely a natural phenomenon – human management part (for want of modernisation of farmin), which can mitigate the effects, is largely missing.
The farmers in countries like Pakistan generally depend on their traditional knowledge about weather, which has become largely outdated, and the states don’t have dependable weather forecast systems. Both these factors jointly hurt the sector.
These weather changes are affecting almost the entire range of human activity, but the most vulnerable among them is agriculture – the world so far has mainly practiced climate-agriculture. Controlled agriculture does not constitute even one per cent of the entire sector. Unfortunately, the El Nino has created new weather realities, which are “un-predictable,” both in general behaviour and timing and quantum of rains and droughts it produces.
The extended drought caused by El Nino effect during the four-month (June, July, August and September) has underscored the extent of the damage it could wreak. It has also exposed the weakness of the current metrological set-up in forecasting of weather and added urgency to water planning.
In May, the meteorological managers had forecast a “highly wet month of June” in a meeting of the Federal Committee on Agriculture (FCA) and the entire water distribution planning was based on this meteorological assessment. The month of June, however, turned out to be “total drought” period, putting the entire official planning on its heads.
To make the matter worse, the meteorological officials in June came up with forecast of 30 per cent more rains for the next three (monsoon) months. But the forecast was revised down to 20 per cent within a week. Then it further cut it to 10 per cent another week down the line. It again revised estimates to 10 per cent less than normal rains, then to 20 per cent and ultimately it settled at 30 per cent reduction in monsoon rains.
All the forecasts, starting from 30 per cent more to 30 per cent less rains, were made within a span of two months – a fluctuation of 60 per cent in as much days, with a price tag of Rs100 billion. Ultimately, the country received 26 per cent less rains. Provincial breakdown of rains further complicated the task of agriculture managers. Against national average loss of 26 per cent, the NWFP suffered 36.9 per cent loss, the Punjab 25.6 per cent, Sindh got five per cent above normal rains and Balochistan received 40 per cent less rains.
How one could plan agriculture in such a situation? Some countries in the world have already started responding to the phenomenon because of current and future projections attached to it. Pakistan is yet to wake up to it. The Kharif losses should serve as an eye opener and goad the government into a befitting response. For that, the country needs to move in three directions simultaneously – scientifically asses the losses, improve its meteorological set-up and invest in water sector – to contain weather effects.
To start with, documentation of the effects of changing weather phenomenon on its agriculture must be started so that bigger and more reliable picture starts emerging. Many countries are already doing it and the guidelines how to do it could even be downloaded from the Internet. Thus it should not waste time any more. This year’s estimated loss of Rs100 billion should be enough to shake any civilised country into action. The amount is just a few billion short of what the government is begging for from the US. Checking domestic financial losses can be one way of saving ourselves from the disgrace of begging.
Second, investment must be made in metrological infrastructure. Equipment that makes at least two-season advance weather forecasts, by and large close to reality, is available in the international market. The loss that the country would suffer because of faulty forecasts would be much higher than what such equipment would cost. Agriculture planning needs to be at least a year ahead of actual production. Even if the meteorologists get it right at the last moment, as happened this season, there is no benefit because agriculture cannot respond to it. Only a credible, efficient and fully equipped meteorological system could save the country from such disasters.
Third, there is a need to invest heavily on the water sector so that water fluctuation could be absorbed. The country is already late by 30 years in its water planning. The recent weather phenomenon has only added urgency to it. Though the government has moved on small dams – building 32 of them in next three years – but it is guilty of ignoring bigger ones. The level of efficiency could be gauged from the fact that the ground-breaking of Diamer-Bhasha dam was performed in April 2006, and not a brick has been moved on the project even three-and-a-half years down the line.
The planners must show sensitivity to the weather phenomenon because it is now part of human life and agriculture. Its losses, if not checked, can ruin the agriculture economy.
