MPAs demand comprehensive agriculture policy

Post Source: Staff Reporter – DailyTimes 

* PA members criticise role of marketing committees’ chairmen
* MPA asks for replacement of current agriculture marketing system

Staff Report

LAHORE: Punjab Assembly members criticised the province’s agriculture marketing system during Tuesday’s proceedings and demanded the formulation of comprehensive agricultural policies and an end to the current system.

The members asked if new chairmen of marketing committees had been appointed and what were their roles. MPA Syed Hasan Murtaza said the previously-appointed chairmen did not perform any duties and were the most lethargic people around, yet they enjoyed the facilities of an office, official vehicles and staff. He said their secretaries were the ones actually enjoying the authority, as they had to be contacted for any official work instead of the chairmen. The members also asked about the government’s steps regarding improvement of the agriculture marketing system and new agricultural policies.

Replacement: Regarding the existing marketing system and the government’s agricultural policy, MPA Chaudhry Javed Ahmed said the system was outdated and should be replaced as soon as possible to facilitate the masses and farmers. He said the Punjab government should devise a comprehensive agricultural policy if it has not done so already.

Defending the allegations levelled against marketing committee’s chairmen, Punjab Agriculture Minister Ahmed Ali Aulakh said a chairman is authorised to perform certain duties under the rules and regulations, however, the chairmen’s posts of all the committees were currently vacant. He said the chairmen would be elected after the local bodies elections.

Benefits: Aulakh said as far as the government’s agricultural policy is concerned, they are taking positive steps to improve the sector. He said establishment of cold storages, export of fruits and provision of environment-friendly tractors were a result of the government’s policies. He said the government was also taking steps to provide maximum benefit to farmers by reducing the role of the middleman and procuring crops directly from the farmers. He added that legislation was also being made in this regard.

The House also unanimously passed resolutions tabled by the opposition for benefiting the public. The resolutions included free allotment of three- and five-marla residential plots to the needy besides providing them loans on easy terms so they can build their houses on these plots. Deputy opposition leader Muhammad Yar Hiraj presented the resolutions. MPA Naseem Lodhi also presented a resolution regarding immediate steps for the provision of National Cadet Corps training at government schools. The House passed both the resolutions unanimously.

The opposition also suggested amendments to the Punjab Public Service Commission and Punjab Office of the Ombudsman bills, seeking that the offices be bound to send their annual reports to the House within a specific period of time instead of the current suggestion of submissions “as early as possible”.

Water shortage to cause 40pc decline in wheat output

Post Source: The Nation – By Ashraf Javed

LAHORE – Agriculturists, water experts and growers have predicted that country could experience 30 to 40 per cent decline in wheat production this year as the farmers are facing worst water shortage after India cut down up to 50 per cent of water flow at Chenab River, putting the wheat crops in Punjab at stake.

On the other hand, weather pundits have also forecast scarcity of rains for this year.

President Pakistan Muttahida Kisan Mahaz (PMKM) Ayub Khan Mayo who recently visited Head-Marala to review water situation said that the wheat crops in Sindh and Punjab are in danger as the growers community is facing worst water shortage.

He also criticised the government’s silence over Chenab River water steal by India. “Under the Indus Water Basin Treaty, India is required to release 16,000 cusec Chenab water to Pakistan whereas water flow at Head Marala has been reduced to only 5000-Cusec as a result of construction of Baglihar Dam in Occupied Kashmir. Drastic fall in Chenab water flow had resulted in closure of Marala Ravi Link, Upper Chenab and BRB canals which met 75 percent canal water requirement of Punjab,” he maintained.

The closure of three canals has created an acute shortage of water for Rabi crop, and wheat production is likely to fall drastically in Punjab, Mayo added.

According to the Indus Water Treaty, India could not use Chenab water, as it could affect the quantity or flow of river. It goes without saying that by making the reservoir, the flow of water will definitely be affected.
“Pakistan is facing acute shortage of water due to India’s river water diversion plan, which has adversely impacted the farmers and made it difficult for them to keep their body and soul together,” Chairman Agri-Forum Pakistan Ibrahim Mughal said on Monday. He said that the wheat production could be less than the set target of 25 millions tons this year as the Indian water aggression is continued unabated.

He also said that the worst water scarcity would badly damage the wheat crops standing at no less than 2.5 million acre in the central Punjab. “This all is happening due to the construction of controversial Baglihar Dam and closure of Pakistan’s water by India,” Ibrahim Mughal said.

He further said that the water aggression would also damage grain crops in the Punjab province besides badly affecting the sowing of sugarcane crop.
Mughal also said that the government functionaries and advisors have the habit of issuing warnings that they would take up the matter with the World Bank or ICJ.

He also blamed the previous government for procrastination, the present ruling and opposition parties are involved in internecine conflict and India, meanwhile, may complete Kishanganga project.

In 2008, Pakistan suffered a loss exceeding Rs5 billion in paddy crop production only in the wake of water shortage after India stopped Chenab water to fill the Baglihar Dam in September.

Zadar Iqbal, a progressive farmer from Mailsi, said that in the past, there had been wars between the countries over religions, usurpation of territories and control of resources including oil, but in view of acute shortages of water in Africa, Middle East, Asia and many other places, the future wars would now be fought over water.

In addition to Kashmir dispute, the Indus River Basin has been an area of conflict between India and Pakistan for about four decades. Spanning 1,800 miles, the river and its tributaries together make up one of the largest irrigation canals in the world.

Dams and canals built in order to provide hydropower and irrigation have dried up stretches of the Indus River. The division of the river basin water has created friction among the countries of South Asia, and among their states and provinces.

Muhammad Ramzan Rafique, an agriculturist from Faisalabad University says, “Pakistan, indeed, needs large reservoirs to meet the growing food requirements of ever-increasing population, whereas for the last three decades none of the government has been able to evolve a national consensus on construction of Kalabagh Dam.”

Today, he said, agricultural sector contributes 24 per cent to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP); two-third of population living in rural areas depends on it; absorbs more than 50 per cent of the labour force and provides the base for 75 per cent of exports in the form of raw materials and value-added products.

There is realisation in all the provinces that water shortages can lead to food shortages and also rifts between the provinces.
But the issue had been politicised for the last 30 years and genuine efforts were not made by the governments and leaders to resolve the contradictions by showing sense of accommodation and understanding of one another’s problems, he added.

Water shortage to cause 40pc decline in wheat output

Post Source: The Nation

LAHORE – Agriculturists, water experts and growers have predicted that country could experience 30 to 40 per cent decline in wheat production this year as the farmers are facing worst water shortage after India cut down up to 50 per cent of water flow at Chenab River, putting the wheat crops in Punjab at stake.

On the other hand, weather pundits have also forecast scarcity of rains for this year.

President Pakistan Muttahida Kisan Mahaz (PMKM) Ayub Khan Mayo who recently visited Head-Marala to review water situation said that the wheat crops in Sindh and Punjab are in danger as the growers community is facing worst water shortage.

He also criticised the government’s silence over Chenab River water steal by India. “Under the Indus Water Basin Treaty, India is required to release 16,000 cusec Chenab water to Pakistan whereas water flow at Head Marala has been reduced to only 5000-Cusec as a result of construction of Baglihar Dam in Occupied Kashmir. Drastic fall in Chenab water flow had resulted in closure of Marala Ravi Link, Upper Chenab and BRB canals which met 75 percent canal water requirement of Punjab,” he maintained.
The closure of three canals has created an acute shortage of water for Rabi crop, and wheat production is likely to fall drastically in Punjab, Mayo added.

According to the Indus Water Treaty, India could not use Chenab water, as it could affect the quantity or flow of river. It goes without saying that by making the reservoir, the flow of water will definitely be affected.
“Pakistan is facing acute shortage of water due to India’s river water diversion plan, which has adversely impacted the farmers and made it difficult for them to keep their body and soul together,” Chairman Agri-Forum Pakistan Ibrahim Mughal said on Monday. He said that the wheat production could be less than the set target of 25 millions tons this year as the Indian water aggression is continued unabated.

He also said that the worst water scarcity would badly damage the wheat crops standing at no less than 2.5 million acre in the central Punjab. “This all is happening due to the construction of controversial Baglihar Dam and closure of Pakistan’s water by India,” Ibrahim Mughal said.

He further said that the water aggression would also damage grain crops in the Punjab province besides badly affecting the sowing of sugarcane crop.
Mughal also said that the government functionaries and advisors have the habit of issuing warnings that they would take up the matter with the World Bank or ICJ.

He also blamed the previous government for procrastination, the present ruling and opposition parties are involved in internecine conflict and India, meanwhile, may complete Kishanganga project.

In 2008, Pakistan suffered a loss exceeding Rs5 billion in paddy crop production only in the wake of water shortage after India stopped Chenab water to fill the Baglihar Dam in September.

Zadar Iqbal, a progressive farmer from Mailsi, said that in the past, there had been wars between the countries over religions, usurpation of territories and control of resources including oil, but in view of acute shortages of water in Africa, Middle East, Asia and many other places, the future wars would now be fought over water.

In addition to Kashmir dispute, the Indus River Basin has been an area of conflict between India and Pakistan for about four decades. Spanning 1,800 miles, the river and its tributaries together make up one of the largest irrigation canals in the world.

Dams and canals built in order to provide hydropower and irrigation have dried up stretches of the Indus River. The division of the river basin water has created friction among the countries of South Asia, and among their states and provinces.

Muhammad Ramzan Rafique, an agriculturist from Faisalabad University says, “Pakistan, indeed, needs large reservoirs to meet the growing food requirements of ever-increasing population, whereas for the last three decades none of the government has been able to evolve a national consensus on construction of Kalabagh Dam.”

Today, he said, agricultural sector contributes 24 per cent to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP); two-third of population living in rural areas depends on it; absorbs more than 50 per cent of the labour force and provides the base for 75 per cent of exports in the form of raw materials and value-added products.

There is realisation in all the provinces that water shortages can lead to food shortages and also rifts between the provinces.

But the issue had been politicised for the last 30 years and genuine efforts were not made by the governments and leaders to resolve the contradictions by showing sense of accommodation and understanding of one another’s problems, he added.

کسانوں اور زرعی مزدوروں کے حقوق کیلئے سیپ کی ملک گیر مہم شروع

لاہور (نیوز رپورٹر) چھٹی قومی زراعت شماری مےں کسانوں اورزرعی مزدوروں خصوصا عورتوںاو اقلےتوں کے مسائل اٹھانے کے لئے سیپ پاکستان نے ملک گیر مہم کا آغاز کر دیا ہے تاکہ سرکاری پالےسےوں منصوبو ں اور قانون سازی کے عمل مےں شمولےت سے ان محروم لوگوں کو روزگار کی فراہمی ،تحفظ خوراک،کے مواقع وپروگرام اور وسائل مہےا کئے جا سکےں ۔ساوتھ ایشیا پارٹنر شپ نے اس امر پر گہری تشوےش کا اظہارکیاہے کہ اس اہم ترےن کام مےںکسان و مزدور عورتوں کو مکمل طور پر نظر انداز کےا گےا ہے ،ان کے ابتر حالات کے بارے مےں ہماری رےاست کا روےہ ہر گز بھی مناسب نہےںاسی لئے زراعت شماری مےں ان کے مسائل و حالات کوشامل نہےں کےا جاتا اور نہ ہی وہ قومی منصوبہ سازی اور پالےسےوں کا حصہ بن سکتے ہےں۔ انہوں نے کہا کہ افراد شماری ہو ےا زراعت شماری ،ہماری ر ےا ست اسے بطو رہتھےار استعمال کرتی چلی آ رہی ہے اورنمونہ جاتی زراعت شماری کے ذرےعہ رےاست اپنے من پسند اعداد وشمار اور معلومات اکٹھی کر کے اپنے کام مےں لا تی ہے اورےہ خد شہ بھی ہے کہ کہےں اےسا تو نہےں کہ حکو مت زراعت شماری کے ذرےعے کارپورٹ فارمنگ کےلئے ز رعی زمےنوں کے کوائف ا کٹھے کرناچاہتی ہو تاکہ ےہ معلومات غےر ملکی کمپنےوں کو فراہم کی جا سکےں ۔سےپ پاکستان اور اس کے نےٹ ورک مےں شامل تنظےموں اور کسانوں و مزدوروں کے نمائےندے نے مطا لبہ کیا ہے کہ زراعت شماری نمونہ جاتی کے بجائے ملک گےر سطح ُپر کرائی جائے اورکسانوں ومزدوروں (عورتوں، مردوں اور اقلےتوں ) پر مشتمل کل آبادی مےں خوراک ،تعلےم ،صحت ،روز گار اور دےگر صورتحال کے بارے مےں اعداد و شمار اکٹھے کئے جائےں زرعی پےداواری عمل مےں عورتوں کے کام کی ہر نوعےت سامنے لائی جائے اور زرعی معشےےت مےں ان کے حصے کو بھی اجاگر کےا جائے ۔

‘Govt to produce 3-4pc extra fertiliser’

Post Source: The News – January 16, 2010

ISLAMABAD: The government would produce three to four per cent extra fertilizers from its demand during the current year due to its effective policies.

Syed Khursheed Ahmed Shah, Federal Minister for Labour and Manpower, told the National Assembly in question hour on Friday that the prices of DAP would increase if an industry was established in the country that is why they import DAP from abroad. The minister agreed to form a task force to look into the affairs of fertilizers, their non-availability issues and prices.

He was of the view that the government had not sold out any sick or even profitable unit to anyone and a policy in this regard was being prepared to turn sick units into profitable. Meanwhile, answering a question regarding the decrease in exports of leather products by Sardar Ayaz Sadiq, the minister told the House that their export decreased from 35-40 per cent during the past year but assured that these exports would get momentum in the coming year.

The leather business has been given special focus in the new trade policy, he added. Answering questions regarding government steps towards the export of fruits and vegetables, Khursheed said the government was working to establish cold storages in different cities and some of them would be functional till 2011.

Producing quality seed

Post Source: DAWN ECONOMIC & BUSINESS REVIEW

 

By Fahim Nawaz

The informal sector is the major source of seed supply where more than 90 per cent of seeds come from farmers or sources like commission agents, retailers and shopkeepers.The policy makers, donors and scientific community need to help organise systematic seed production to enhance agricultural output.

The provision of infrastructure, financial incentives and improved marketing is needed to promote seed industry. The organisation of informal sector by forming seed growers association and provision of small cleaning units and storage facilities would help develop good quality seed. The agricultural departments and media can play an important in creating awareness in the farming community particularly in small farmers about the production of quality seed.

The formal seed sector comprises public sector organisations and private seed companies. The private companies fulfill the demand of fodder and forages seed and of oilseeds to some extent but much of the seed for these crops is imported. This is due to failure of public sector to produce fodder seed on commercial scale and lack of hybrid seed production programme in the private sector. The private sector provides seed at higher rates than the public sector and every company has a different price for the same crop seed because imported seed is much more expensive than that produced locally.

The lack of plant breeding programme in the private sector is the major constraint in the supply of sufficient amount of good quality seed to the farmers. Although public sector organisations are playing a key role in the variety development, registration and release but their performance is not satisfactory due to lack of resources and independent organisation for seed purpose. The less developed seed sector in NWFP and Balochistan is affecting seed production in these provinces and private sector should be encouraged to enter the seed business.

There is need to provide incentives for the development of national seed sector. Reorganisation or privatisation of public seed companies would increase efficiency and encourage national private seed companies to establish basic seed production units to organise seed production programme.

The local vegetable seed production by private sector should be encouraged by providing incentives. The private sector should be facilitated to establish its own basic seed production units in all the provinces. FSC and RD should be strengthened by establishing new laboratories and levying fees for variety registration and seed certification services.

The import and export of seed were allowed under the Truth-in-Labeling (Seed), Rules 1991 and import of seed of only those varieties was allowed that were approved in the national register for seed and crop production. A very liberal and friendly seed policy provides an opportunity to enter into seed business in the country but it also pose a threat for local seed production projects especially in case of vegetables and hybrid seed.

The quality of seed is controlled and monitored by FSC & RD and it has successfully monitored the quality of seed to safeguard the farmers and seed industry by enforcing the Seed Act 1976 and Truth-in-Labeling (Seeds) Rules, 1991 of seed imported from other countries. There is need to bring gradual reduction in import of seeds by developing and improving the local production.

The seed processing capacity is mainly concentrated in Punjab and Sindh compared to in the other two provinces. The available seed processing capacity does not correspond with the targets of seed procurement and it should be increased by installing small cleaning units.

The storage facilities are also not satisfactory. Appropriate seed storage facilities should be built to maintain the quality of seed offered for sale.

The provincial seed corporations provide seed to farmers through their own seed depots, seed dealers and other public sector organisations and are responsible for marketing and distribution of seed. However, in Balochistan, seed is supplied by agricultural extension services, agricultural research institutes and sales points established by the agriculture department. Inefficient marketing system leads to carry-over stocks which affects procurement targets of next year. Private sector has comparatively better marketing system than public sector.

The need of documentation and data base for planning and management of seed industry has increased in the modern age of globalisation. This will attract the foreign investors to plan for the establishment of seed industry either independently or through joint venture with national private seed sector. The compilation of a comprehensive document “Seed Industry of Pakistan” is a step in the right direction.

Punjab govt urged to allot land to poor women farmers

Post Source: The News International – By Saadia Khalid – Islamabad

The representatives of women groups, women’s organizations and human rights activists demanded of the Punjab government to allocate land to poor women farmers as well.

They hailed the decision of the Punjab government regarding allotment of land to landless peasants in Punjab, but stressed that the land should also be allocated to women farmers.

The representing organizations included Awam Dost Foundation-Bhakkar, Pakistan Welfare Society, Layyah, Women’s Organization for Rights and Development-Islamabad (WORD), Women’s Action Forum-Islamabad, Women Worker’s Helpline-Lahore, SYCOP-Muzzaffargarh, Peasant Women’s Society Okara, Nomad Center Islamabad, Mehrgarh Learning Center-Islamabad, Strengthening Participatory Organization-Islamabad (SPO), Potohar Organization for Development Advocacy, Islamabad (PODA) and Aurat Foundation, Islamabad.

The representatives of the organizations said that the government should not only allocate land to women farmers, but also facilitate them in cultivating the land by establishing agriculture support centres at UC level for women so that agriculture inputs especially indigenous seeds, fertilizers and machines such as threshers should be provided to women.

According to them trainings should be organized through these centres for women peasants to further strengthen their knowledge, encourage organic farming and keep them updated on new techniques. Such progressive reforms in policies and legislation will not only eradicate gender discrimination but will also improve the status of women farmers in our country as key to national food security and nutrition.

The women’s groups and representatives of women farmers have struggled hard for years, through nationwide campaigns, advocating for policy changes based on social and economic justice to demand women’s right to land.

Women have always played a very significant role in the agriculture sector; about 79% of women as compared to 57% men are employed in the agriculture sector (ADB 2000). Their role as producers and providers of food, their contribution to the sustenance and survival of the household and economy is immense, it often goes unnoticed.

Women have always been on the frontline in the fight against hunger and poverty. But their agricultural work is often trivialized and seen as an extension of their domestic work.

Although legally women in Pakistan can own and inherit land but they have little access and control, when it comes to national policies or distribution of resources women is only implicitly mentioned. States can be more food secure by implementing and upholding new policies or laws that give women more secure rights to own or access land in their own right as citizens.

Agri sector growth to fall

Post Source: The News International – January 13, 2010

By Shahid Shah

KARACHI: The State Bank has warned that the current fiscal year would see decline in the growth of the agriculture sector, as farmers were disappointed with crop prices and water scarcity that caused a drop in rice and sugarcane production. “Aggressive wheat sowing by end-November is encouraging as a bumper wheat crop may push up agri growth,” noted the first quarterly report of the State Bank of Pakistan for financial year 2009-10. Performance of FY10 Kharif crops would be weaker than the corresponding period of last year.”

In addition to poor Kharif output, livestock production was also uncertain amid a decline in non-farm agri credit disbursement.The report suggested establishment of a commodity futures market to enhance the crop price setting. “An efficient legal and regulatory framework with crop insurance is an important prerequisite for a properly functional futures market,” said the report.

The bank noted that cotton picking was fast due to increased heat as arrival of the commodity at ginning factories was about 24.2 per cent higher than the preceding year by December 15, 2009.

Area under cultivation of cotton increased by 6 percent, production is likely to remain around last year’s 12.1 million bales against the target of 13.4 million bales. “However, there is a possibility that the stronger ginning arrival indicate a bigger than anticipated crop due to increased usage of early maturing high yield Bt cotton,” the report said.

Due to increased sowing of BT cotton, the crop noted significant increase in Sindh. The decline in area under rice was anticipated due to a decline in international prices and farmers’ disappointment over realized lower prices. Farmers were demanding a more active government intervention in the rice trade to stabilize the prices.

After achieving a record harvest of 63.9 million tons in FY08, domestic sugarcane output dropped for the second consecutive year during FY10. Farmers brought lower area under sugarcane due to continued dissatisfaction on marketing issues with sugar mills.

The bank said any intervention in price mechanism by the government would affect the farmers negatively. “It is likely that sugar mills would offer a lower price than expected by the farmers since mills would like to minimize their input cost given regulatory hurdles in passing on the impact of higher cost,” it said.

Performance of other major kharif crops is also not encouraging in FY10 when compared with the preceding year, said the report.

Agriculture credit disbursement growth during Jul-Oct FY10 slowed to 9.1 percent. Not only was this reduction in sharp contrast with FY09 growth of 16.2 percent, but was also the lowest in the last seven years for any Jul-Oct period.

State Bank noted that due to increased risk and liquidity crunch a fall was recorded in agri-credit by the domestic private banks (DPBs) for the first time since their entry in agri-credit market.

Due to decline in prices of both urea and DAP, fertilizer off-take increased sharply during the first quarter of FY10 against negative growth seen in the same period last year.Indus System River Authority (IRSA) has indicated 31 percent water shortage for rabi against 39 percent shortage last year.

Insufficient rains may hit wheat output in barani areas

Post Source: The News – January 12, 2010 – By Israr Khan

ISLAMABAD: The bellow normal winter rains are likely to reduce wheat production in upcoming Rabi season 2010 by almost 50 per cent or one million tons in barani areas and about half a million tons in the irrigated areas, a senior official in the Ministry of Food and Agriculture told The News here on Monday.

The Federal Minster for Food and Agriculture Nazar Muhammad Gondal the other day had said that the irrigated land under wheat cultivation has increased by 30 percent as against the set target for the 2009-2010 crop. He also said that the wheat sowing in barani or rain-fed area has decreased by 20 percent due to continuous dry spell.

Despite 30 per cent increase in wheat sowing area in the region irrigated by the canal system of Indus basin and only 20 per cent decline in land under wheat cultivation in the barani areas due to unfavourable climate, why the government is not expecting to cross the wheat production target?

It indicates, besides low rain there were policy issues that hindered wheat growth.

The official claimed that with better management, ample availability of DAP and urea fertilisers at low prices, land levelling, use of herbicides would help in attaining wheat production target of 25 million tons.

It is feared that per acre yield would go down dramatically this season. As one-third increase in wheat sowing area, instead of increasing total production would just enable the economy to achieve the target.

According to source, due to no rain and inadequate moisture in soil most of the farmers were reluctant to sow wheat in barani areas during the sowing season of November and December 2009. Besides, the prevailing dry spell would also affect the yield of already sown wheat, he said. This was reason the government was now expecting only a million ton wheat from rain-fed areas instead of two million tons, which it gets each year.

Government has targeted wheat production of 19.2 million tons in Punjab, 3.68 million tons in Sindh, 1.21 million tons in NWFP and 0.90 million tons in Balochistan.

Rain forecast and Rabi crops

Post Source: DAWN Economic & Business Review – Monday, 11 Jan, 2010

By Ahmad Fraz Khan

THE latest weather advisory of the meteorological department, forecasting 20-30 per cent less rain during January and February, has panicked agriculture planners, especially in Punjab. The advisory has put all Rabi crops on 30.5 million acres online. According to the Met advisory, the current El-Nino conditions, which started in June last year suppressing monsoon rains, are expected to last up to spring 2010. Under these parameters, significantly below normal winter rains are expected during January-February. Because of abnormal dry weather conditions, the Rabi crops, especially in barani (rain-fed) areas, would remain under moisture stress, and the water scarcity in urban areas may aggravate.

The low rainfall in the last monsoon has increased water scarcity during the current winter. Currently, the snowfall over the northern areas, Kashmir and Galliyat has remained well below normal so far.

The latest advisory has come on the heel of dry December, during which Punjab, the nation’s food basket, received 96 per cent less rain and the country suffered an overall rain deficit of 37 per cent. The country had already been suffering Rabi shortage of 40 per cent, and the new warning would only worsen overall water availability picture.

The official planners agree that it was time to start calculating “losses rather than Rabi gains.” Though they are reluctant to predict final yield loss, they believe “all is not lost yet.”

There are so many variables that play vital role in crop yield and all of them have different agronomy and response to water stress, says an official planner. In case of wheat, these variables include plant population, grains per plant and grain weight.

Listing positive factors so far, they say that apart from water stress, which is turning out to be huge man-made variables have been positive. The di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) use has improved by 20 per cent so far in the Rabi season. Urea off-take has been better. Weedicide application has been up to 40 per cent. All these mean that it would only take 12 to 15 millimetres of rain for the crops to bounce back. But if it does not rain that much, the entire range of crops – wheat, gram, sugarcane, sunflower and maize – would be in for trouble.

The farmers, however, see at least 15 to 20 per cent yield loss if the Met warning turns out to be true. Out of 30.5 million acres hosting different crops, around 3.5 million acres fall in the barrani (rain-fed) belt, depending exclusively on rains. It includes 2.2 million acres of gram. Thus, the gram crop and over one million acres of wheat would be in real danger – denting national yield. Another risk for these crops in the barrani belt would be termite attack, which damages and destroys harvests during water stress.

Apart from persisting Rabi water shortage and Met warning of less rain, reduction in snow fall in small hilly areas means continuation of water shortages in March and May as well. Both dams, especially early riser and snow-fed Mangla Dam would be denied adequate access to water and transfer the stress to next Kharif season.

In this situation, the only option left with farmers is the usage of tubewells, which is already hit by increases in power and diesel charges and exceptional electricity loadshedding, especially in rural areas. The agriculture planners and farmers are now busy firming up response to the Met warning.

Without denying the role of such weather cycles in agriculture, one can argue that lack of long-term planning has resulted in shortages of water and power. The government could not control power and diesel prices within affordable level of the farmers.

In post-Terbella period, the water planners had recommended to the government to develop water resources at the yearly rate of seven per cent to meet agriculture needs. By that calculation, the country should have constructed a five million acre feet dam every seventh year – five reservoirs holding 25maf by now.

The failure on hydro power generation has been equally stupendous. Despite a proven capacity to generate over 35,000MW on projects from Skardu to Kalabagh route, it has not been able to add more than 1,450MW from Ghazi-Brotha Hydro Power Project. All other potential sites remain unutilised. This has only increased dependence on highly expensive thermal generation.

De-regulating oil prices and keep them fluctuating every fortnight only robbed the sector of any long-term economic planning. The official preference to tax the petroleum products, including diesel that runs 80 per cent of country’s tube-wells is a snag to development of farming.

The current stress must be an eye-opener for the official planners. They need integrated planning for developing agriculture and all other sectors on which agricultural growth is dependent.